“Here, lemme just Zoom Putin real quick and show him this game theory spreadsheet demonstrating how this will lead to mutually-suboptimal outcomes. I’m sure he’ll listen to reason. People are basically rational actors, right? Right? I’ve certainly never had a repressed freshman-year experience that challenged that fundamental truth!”
Wizard
Now there’s a depressing thought. That Putin might still be in charge when Dorothy is President, that is.
King Daniel
He’s 70 years old, in a country where the male life expectancy hovers just around there (and was still in the 60s until less than a decade ago). Unless there are both unprecedented advancements in longevity treatment andDumbing of Age goes through a massive timeskip, we can at least take comfort in the fact that he statistically won’t be around by then. And I say this as someone with a Russian passport.
Reltzik
This would be President-and-Prime-Minister-for-Life Putin IV.
Reltzik
And Zoom would be the only video chat software old enough to have gotten into Russia pre-sanctions, yet inexplicably still be in use in the West.
Decidedly Orthogonal
> Putin IV
As in Putin 4 a new russian administration? Yes please.
Some reports suggest he’s by far the wealthiest individual in the world. Can probably get enough replacement organs to make it into the hundreds unless we get lucky.
@King Daniel:
According to the WHO’s 2020 figures, Russia’s overall Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) is 71.34 years old, but Russia is also distinctive in being only second to Belarus of the 194 countries in the WHO list in how wide its gender gap between male and female LEB is: 76.43 years for women vs. 66.49 years for men.
However, LEB is not the right measure for estimating how much longer an old man is likely to stay alive, because it is weighted downwards by infant mortality (according to the World Bank, Russian “under-five mortality rate” was 5.8 per 1000 live births in 2019.)
So a more relevant metric is the WHO’s life expectancy at 60 (LE60), which for Russian males is estimated at 16.8 years, meaning a 60-year old Russian man can expect, on average, to make it to about 77, or a good 10 years up from what LEB would have us believe.
Now obviously, this is an average over the entire population of a very economically disparate nation, and Putin being a rich head of state means he will benefit from better healthcare and living conditions than almost anyone else in Russia. The fact that he is only about to turn 70 means he might still be around in 20 years.
On a brighter note, he’s also at a way higher risk of getting assassinated than most Russians, so, knock on wood.
TLDR: waiting for Putin to die of natural causes is unfortunately likely to take a while.
King Daniel
Yeah, that’s definitely a point you’ve got there (also, thanks for reminding me that the LE60 is a thing, I’d forgotten all about it). Putin’s certainly most likely to be alive for a while yet, all circumstances considered. Still, my underlying point—about Dumbing of Age having taken 12 years and counting to cover just over three months, in which time in real life Putin’s gone from being in his 50s to pushing 70—should still hopefully remain to indicate that by the time the comic ever gets around to depicting a Keener presidency (if it lasts that long), he’ll be gone.
right, yeah, your central point obviously stands. In fact Willis‘s lifespan is unlikely to carry us to Dorothy in the white house, unless she maybe interns there in a semester or two.
…and that’s assuming the US still has a president in the bunch of decades centuries this outcome would require at the current rate. hell, who knows if there will still be a US of A by the time Willis retires. For any of a myriad of possible reasons, only a vast majority of which are extremely gruesome and depressing *eye-roll emoji*
Wizard
It’s nice to see someone who actually understands how “life expectancy” works!
It’s true that Putin has access to considerably better resources than your average Russian. OTOH, he’s also probably under a lot more stress, and being more feared than loved, any major slip up could potentially get him “retired”. On a third hand (rapidly running out of hands here), some dictators have managed to remain alive and in power into their nineties.
There have been some suggestions recently that he’s having health problems, although it’s hard to say just how much stock one should put in that. Similar rumors have been floated for years, and he’s not dead yet.
Wizard
Even if Dorothy started aging in real time tomorrow, she couldn’t become President before 2041. As a college freshman, she’s probably 18 or 19, so even if she somehow won the first election she was eligible for, that would still be 2040. Even our youngest Presidents were in their early 40s, so 2048 would probably be more realistic.
Paradox
When FDR served 4 terms in the US, there were people who genuinely thought his last name was “President”, because thats all he was ever referred to as when they were children
Would not be surprised if “Putin” ends up becoming an informal title for the leader of Russia
Jflb96
They already have a surname for that sort of leader, it’s just two thousand years old and slightly Roman
thejeff
“Tsar”?
King Daniel
Said title is a Slavicization of the Latin title “Caesar”, similar to the Imperial German title “Kaiser” doing the same thing (German even kept more or less the original Classical Latin pronunciation, which used a hard C instead of a soft C like is more common in English nowadays).
thejeff
I knew there was another one, but couldn’t think of Kaiser.
thejeff
That only tends to last if you’re regarded as successful after your death.
Wizard
Well, three terms. While he was elected to a fourth, he served less than three months before his death. Considering what he knew about his health by 1944, it was wildly irresponsible for him to run. To compound this, he accepted a running mate he didn’t like or trust out of political expediency, and then kept Truman hopelessly out of the loop until his death. This meant the country got a new, poorly prepared leader while there was still a war on. Granted, the war was effectively won by this point (Germany surrendered less than a month after his death, and Japan three months after that.), but it was still some lousy leadership. This is one reason (of many) that I just cannot understand the widespread adulation of FDR.
I’m with Douglas Adams on that subject:
“The major problem—one of the major problems, for there are several—one of the many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them.
To summarize: it is a well-known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it.
To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.”
(Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe)
Dorothy’s desire for power should automatically call her motives into suspicion. No one who *wants* power should *ever* be trusted with it.
Does Dorothy desire power or the means to help as many people as possible, which just hapoens to involve power? In which case the question of whether or not she deserves it becomes how likely she is to be corrupted on her journey into power? At this point I’m wondering if she’s blaming herself for Toedad’s death in which case she needs to ask herself if she has the level of sociopathy needed to make those sorts of decisions on a grander scale. Being president isn’t just signing documents, sometimes you need to make terrible decisions that lead to people getting hurt. I think that would break her…
CJ
I think we are all aware that Dorothy has great aims but never considered what you actually have to do to get into power.
I think she would make a great behind the scenes person who offers optimal solutions for things but needs someone who understands power-play and trade-offs to get some of those things done.
Marvelman
You make a valid observation, but there are rare exceptions to this.
thejeff
Some more so than others though and the difference matters.
Joseph Mound
Thank you for that quote Stifyn! I don’t remember that quote but I love it. I’m adding it to my list and joining you in agreement with its sentiment!
but still, couldn’t hurt her to at least try some other things in conjunction with therapy. i mean besides ultra-fixation on her goal of becoming president
uh, i literally said nothing bad about it. as well as it may be working for Dorothy, it couldn’t hurt to try other things alongside it, is all I’m saying
Bryy
Your earlier anti-therapy posts plus instantly jabbing at therapy in relation to Dorothy’s current mental state are what they are referring to.
Can I not change my view on therapy to that it works for some but not others, and sometimes might not be enough on it’s own, as with any other coping strategies?
oh please, did Willis discourage you against making any form of public apology altogether? If memory serves you were making a massive spectacle of your contrition, and that’s what he asked you to knock off. as did several other people before he intervened.
people apologize all the time, it doesn’t have to be a big deal. “yeah, you’re right, i’ve been a bit of an ass in the past. i’m trying to be more nuanced now.” and hit post! bam. done. don’t defend yourself, just gracefully acknowledge your responsibility, once, and move on.
or don’t, it’s up to you. i don’t personally have a beef with you over this, but you’ve suggested before that you welcomed 101’s about normal human interactions, so, here you go.
She went through a school shooting and then a kidnapping in the span of like three weeks. Therapy is not going to wash away that trauma.
Yumi
And witnessed a stabbing (slashing?) of a dude who came at her and a friend with a knife.
Bryy
I always find it funny that people go after Willis for his fundamentalist characters (while never, ever mentioning the context) but never mention how this much drama in such a short timeframe would never happen.
King Daniel
Oh, I’ve seen commenters mention it. Not very often sure, but never is a very long word to slightly paraphrase a certain grey pilgrim. 😛
Rowan
It wouldn’t be common, but this amount of drama absolutely could happen
RedCat
A dude was in Hiroshima the day it got bombed, survived, went home to Nagasaki and you guessed it (also survived that).
If that can happen, a fundie toe with a gun trying to kidnap his daughter, a rapist getting stabbed and a bunch of kids getting kidnapped by the same fundie toe, because his church thought it was a good idea to bail him out seems VERY likely, actually more likely now that I wrote it out.
So what has Dorothy freaked out? The fact she could be studying right now? Or is this another “I’m going to be the president one day” thing where she has to be there to help?
I think it’s just the fact that she’s trying to show everyone how “fine” she is, that she’s capable of laughing and having fun, even seeing her ex with somebody new, when what she really wants to do is hide under the covers and read comic books all day.
Well she was recently kidnapped, held hostage, had her FRIENDs held hostage, had a guy murdered in front of her, another person she knows died, all of this on top of the pressure she already is putting herself under…..
OH YEAH I’d forgotten about that plot point where Amber no longer had tuition money
So, like, what does Amber mean about being “taken care of”? And for that matter, I never quite got exactly how Blaine’s death was a problem in that regard. I’m not an expert on inheritance law, but if Blaine was paying for her tuition before, then he clearly had at least some money, and you’d think Amber would get at least some of it. Are you allowed to write someone out of your will when you’re legally obligated to pay their college tuition?
Maybe Blaine was actually broke/in debt and living month to month with whatever he could get from the mob. After his death there would be no inheritance.
Also, what would Faz’s share be in that? Assuming Faz was Blaine’s biological child, if he was never legitimated legally then it may be too late now to prove parentage via DNA testing. Depends on whether Blaine had a will or not.
Although, if Blaine’s money laundering for the mob and the dirty cops came out, his business would likely be subject to civil asset forfeiture, so neither child would get any inheritance.
Also there’s the question of Faz’s mother and what her options are at this point.
The whole kidnapping plot came about because Blaine didn’t want to pay Amber’s tuition. When her parents got divorced, he chose to pay her tuition instead of alimony because he didn’t think Amber would actually go to college, and he figured kidnapping her friends would scare her into dropping out.
179 thoughts on “Fatalist”
Doctor_Who
I absolutely trust this future president with the nuclear codes.
Dean
“Madam President, the Russians have just launched. Missiles are in the air.”
“It’s FINE! Everything’s FINE!!”
Reltzik
“Here, lemme just Zoom Putin real quick and show him this game theory spreadsheet demonstrating how this will lead to mutually-suboptimal outcomes. I’m sure he’ll listen to reason. People are basically rational actors, right? Right? I’ve certainly never had a repressed freshman-year experience that challenged that fundamental truth!”
Wizard
Now there’s a depressing thought. That Putin might still be in charge when Dorothy is President, that is.
King Daniel
He’s 70 years old, in a country where the male life expectancy hovers just around there (and was still in the 60s until less than a decade ago). Unless there are both unprecedented advancements in longevity treatment and Dumbing of Age goes through a massive timeskip, we can at least take comfort in the fact that he statistically won’t be around by then. And I say this as someone with a Russian passport.
Reltzik
This would be President-and-Prime-Minister-for-Life Putin IV.
Reltzik
And Zoom would be the only video chat software old enough to have gotten into Russia pre-sanctions, yet inexplicably still be in use in the West.
Decidedly Orthogonal
> Putin IV
As in Putin 4 a new russian administration? Yes please.
Amelie Wikström
Some reports suggest he’s by far the wealthiest individual in the world. Can probably get enough replacement organs to make it into the hundreds unless we get lucky.
milu
@King Daniel:
According to the WHO’s 2020 figures, Russia’s overall Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) is 71.34 years old, but Russia is also distinctive in being only second to Belarus of the 194 countries in the WHO list in how wide its gender gap between male and female LEB is: 76.43 years for women vs. 66.49 years for men.
However, LEB is not the right measure for estimating how much longer an old man is likely to stay alive, because it is weighted downwards by infant mortality (according to the World Bank, Russian “under-five mortality rate” was 5.8 per 1000 live births in 2019.)
So a more relevant metric is the WHO’s life expectancy at 60 (LE60), which for Russian males is estimated at 16.8 years, meaning a 60-year old Russian man can expect, on average, to make it to about 77, or a good 10 years up from what LEB would have us believe.
Now obviously, this is an average over the entire population of a very economically disparate nation, and Putin being a rich head of state means he will benefit from better healthcare and living conditions than almost anyone else in Russia. The fact that he is only about to turn 70 means he might still be around in 20 years.
On a brighter note, he’s also at a way higher risk of getting assassinated than most Russians, so, knock on wood.
TLDR: waiting for Putin to die of natural causes is unfortunately likely to take a while.
King Daniel
Yeah, that’s definitely a point you’ve got there (also, thanks for reminding me that the LE60 is a thing, I’d forgotten all about it). Putin’s certainly most likely to be alive for a while yet, all circumstances considered. Still, my underlying point—about Dumbing of Age having taken 12 years and counting to cover just over three months, in which time in real life Putin’s gone from being in his 50s to pushing 70—should still hopefully remain to indicate that by the time the comic ever gets around to depicting a Keener presidency (if it lasts that long), he’ll be gone.
milu
right, yeah, your central point obviously stands. In fact Willis‘s lifespan is unlikely to carry us to Dorothy in the white house, unless she maybe interns there in a semester or two.
…and that’s assuming the US still has a president in the bunch of
decadescenturies this outcome would require at the current rate. hell, who knows if there will still be a US of A by the time Willis retires. For any of a myriad of possible reasons, only a vast majority of which are extremely gruesome and depressing *eye-roll emoji*Wizard
It’s nice to see someone who actually understands how “life expectancy” works!
It’s true that Putin has access to considerably better resources than your average Russian. OTOH, he’s also probably under a lot more stress, and being more feared than loved, any major slip up could potentially get him “retired”. On a third hand (rapidly running out of hands here), some dictators have managed to remain alive and in power into their nineties.
There have been some suggestions recently that he’s having health problems, although it’s hard to say just how much stock one should put in that. Similar rumors have been floated for years, and he’s not dead yet.
Wizard
Even if Dorothy started aging in real time tomorrow, she couldn’t become President before 2041. As a college freshman, she’s probably 18 or 19, so even if she somehow won the first election she was eligible for, that would still be 2040. Even our youngest Presidents were in their early 40s, so 2048 would probably be more realistic.
Paradox
When FDR served 4 terms in the US, there were people who genuinely thought his last name was “President”, because thats all he was ever referred to as when they were children
Would not be surprised if “Putin” ends up becoming an informal title for the leader of Russia
Jflb96
They already have a surname for that sort of leader, it’s just two thousand years old and slightly Roman
thejeff
“Tsar”?
King Daniel
Said title is a Slavicization of the Latin title “Caesar”, similar to the Imperial German title “Kaiser” doing the same thing (German even kept more or less the original Classical Latin pronunciation, which used a hard C instead of a soft C like is more common in English nowadays).
thejeff
I knew there was another one, but couldn’t think of Kaiser.
thejeff
That only tends to last if you’re regarded as successful after your death.
Wizard
Well, three terms. While he was elected to a fourth, he served less than three months before his death. Considering what he knew about his health by 1944, it was wildly irresponsible for him to run. To compound this, he accepted a running mate he didn’t like or trust out of political expediency, and then kept Truman hopelessly out of the loop until his death. This meant the country got a new, poorly prepared leader while there was still a war on. Granted, the war was effectively won by this point (Germany surrendered less than a month after his death, and Japan three months after that.), but it was still some lousy leadership. This is one reason (of many) that I just cannot understand the widespread adulation of FDR.
Thag Simmons
I mean she can’t be any worse than some of the fucking jokers who’ve been given the keys to the extinction machine.
Stifyn Baker
I’m with Douglas Adams on that subject:
“The major problem—one of the major problems, for there are several—one of the many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them.
To summarize: it is a well-known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it.
To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.”
(Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe)
Dorothy’s desire for power should automatically call her motives into suspicion. No one who *wants* power should *ever* be trusted with it.
Psi Baka Onna
Does Dorothy desire power or the means to help as many people as possible, which just hapoens to involve power? In which case the question of whether or not she deserves it becomes how likely she is to be corrupted on her journey into power? At this point I’m wondering if she’s blaming herself for Toedad’s death in which case she needs to ask herself if she has the level of sociopathy needed to make those sorts of decisions on a grander scale. Being president isn’t just signing documents, sometimes you need to make terrible decisions that lead to people getting hurt. I think that would break her…
CJ
I think we are all aware that Dorothy has great aims but never considered what you actually have to do to get into power.
I think she would make a great behind the scenes person who offers optimal solutions for things but needs someone who understands power-play and trade-offs to get some of those things done.
Marvelman
You make a valid observation, but there are rare exceptions to this.
thejeff
Some more so than others though and the difference matters.
Joseph Mound
Thank you for that quote Stifyn! I don’t remember that quote but I love it. I’m adding it to my list and joining you in agreement with its sentiment!
The Wellerman
Dorothy? Fine? Yeah…. sure….
Yumi
Dorothy is doing SO WELL.
ThunderNight
she’s doing her best
The Wellerman
Therapy is working SO WELL for her.
Yumi
It’s not like we know how she’d be doing without therapy.
The Wellerman
good point,
but still, couldn’t hurt her to at least try some other things in conjunction with therapy. i mean besides ultra-fixation on her goal of becoming president
Mr D
Wellerman will you STOP your therapy hating?
The Wellerman
uh, i literally said nothing bad about it. as well as it may be working for Dorothy, it couldn’t hurt to try other things alongside it, is all I’m saying
Bryy
Your earlier anti-therapy posts plus instantly jabbing at therapy in relation to Dorothy’s current mental state are what they are referring to.
The Wellerman
Can I not change my view on therapy to that it works for some but not others, and sometimes might not be enough on it’s own, as with any other coping strategies?
milu
You may change your views, but you can’t change the fact that you annoyed several people in the past by being so uncompromisingly anti-therapy.
an apology of sorts may help, but you do you.
The Wellerman
Willis actually advised me against public apologies in the past. He told me they were unnecessary, and I took his word for it.
milu
oh please, did Willis discourage you against making any form of public apology altogether? If memory serves you were making a massive spectacle of your contrition, and that’s what he asked you to knock off. as did several other people before he intervened.
people apologize all the time, it doesn’t have to be a big deal. “yeah, you’re right, i’ve been a bit of an ass in the past. i’m trying to be more nuanced now.” and hit post! bam. done. don’t defend yourself, just gracefully acknowledge your responsibility, once, and move on.
or don’t, it’s up to you. i don’t personally have a beef with you over this, but you’ve suggested before that you welcomed 101’s about normal human interactions, so, here you go.
The Wellerman
yeah, you’re right, i’ve been a nuisance in the past. i’m trying to be more nuanced now
Bryy
She went through a school shooting and then a kidnapping in the span of like three weeks. Therapy is not going to wash away that trauma.
Yumi
And witnessed a stabbing (slashing?) of a dude who came at her and a friend with a knife.
Bryy
I always find it funny that people go after Willis for his fundamentalist characters (while never, ever mentioning the context) but never mention how this much drama in such a short timeframe would never happen.
King Daniel
Oh, I’ve seen commenters mention it. Not very often sure, but never is a very long word to slightly paraphrase a certain grey pilgrim. 😛
Rowan
It wouldn’t be common, but this amount of drama absolutely could happen
RedCat
A dude was in Hiroshima the day it got bombed, survived, went home to Nagasaki and you guessed it (also survived that).
If that can happen, a fundie toe with a gun trying to kidnap his daughter, a rapist getting stabbed and a bunch of kids getting kidnapped by the same fundie toe, because his church thought it was a good idea to bail him out seems VERY likely, actually more likely now that I wrote it out.
BBCC
Ah yes, much perfect dealing. Such excellent coping. Wow
Kyrik Michalowski
So what has Dorothy freaked out? The fact she could be studying right now? Or is this another “I’m going to be the president one day” thing where she has to be there to help?
Alex Boston
Wasn’t she ducking an acceptance letter from a major Ivy League place (which would help her plan to become president if she did not duck it)?
Kyrik Michalowski
Yes, was that before or after the time skip? If it is before, then that could be another reason for her being so tense and not handling things well.
cbwroses
It’s after the time skip.
The Quirk
But this is a flashback INSIDE a time skip.
Laura
I think it’s just the fact that she’s trying to show everyone how “fine” she is, that she’s capable of laughing and having fun, even seeing her ex with somebody new, when what she really wants to do is hide under the covers and read comic books all day.
milu
and which comic books would that be in this fantasy of
your— of Dorothy’s?Reltzik
How about the fact that a human being she knows was just murdered? (Or put into witness protection?)
King Daniel
(Or secretly replaced Ruth’s girlfriend?)
Reaver
Well she was recently kidnapped, held hostage, had her FRIENDs held hostage, had a guy murdered in front of her, another person she knows died, all of this on top of the pressure she already is putting herself under…..
Stephen Bierce
Random Song Isn’t So Random.
darkoneko
Someone looks like she’s absolutely about to SNAP
Bryy
My money is on it happening when she is rejected from Yale.
RacingTurtle
…but she’s already been accepted to Yale by January
Needfuldoer
But does she know she’s been accepted at this point?
milu
Has she even sent her application at this point? (i don’t know how to american college)
Suet
“It’s a Traumatic Situation, Dorothy Brown!”
RassilonTDavros
OH YEAH I’d forgotten about that plot point where Amber no longer had tuition money
So, like, what does Amber mean about being “taken care of”? And for that matter, I never quite got exactly how Blaine’s death was a problem in that regard. I’m not an expert on inheritance law, but if Blaine was paying for her tuition before, then he clearly had at least some money, and you’d think Amber would get at least some of it. Are you allowed to write someone out of your will when you’re legally obligated to pay their college tuition?
Segnosaur
Maybe Blaine was actually broke/in debt and living month to month with whatever he could get from the mob. After his death there would be no inheritance.
Laura
Also, what would Faz’s share be in that? Assuming Faz was Blaine’s biological child, if he was never legitimated legally then it may be too late now to prove parentage via DNA testing. Depends on whether Blaine had a will or not.
Although, if Blaine’s money laundering for the mob and the dirty cops came out, his business would likely be subject to civil asset forfeiture, so neither child would get any inheritance.
Also there’s the question of Faz’s mother and what her options are at this point.
Kitschensyngk
The whole kidnapping plot came about because Blaine didn’t want to pay Amber’s tuition. When her parents got divorced, he chose to pay her tuition instead of alimony because he didn’t think Amber would actually go to college, and he figured kidnapping her friends would scare her into dropping out.
Bryy
I forgot that was the reasoning.
Blaine kidnapped and then tried to murder seven kids rather than pay college tuition.
Amós Batista
You didn’t believe what fathers could do to not pay their obligations to their children….
Bryy
I forgot that was the reasoning.
cbwroses