I think you would be surprised how angry the Monty Hall problem can make people
DaveM
Honest question, why would the Monty Hall problem upset people? It’s been solved. If you stay with your first door you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, if you swap doors, you have a 2 in 3 chance. Mythbusters even did some pretty extensive manual testing and proved that it worked IRL as well as mathematically. What’s to get angry about?
David DeLaney
because some people have a deeply innate but wrong sense of how probability OUGHT TO work, dammit deity
–Dave, they don’t realize that math constrains the divine as well
clif
Dave — It’s a miracle how that happens.
foamy
There’s a fun one with two coins that is essentially the same as Monty Hall and that can break people’s brains who have internalized ‘coinflips are independent 50-50 chances’.
Suppose I flip two coins and show you one of them, with it being (for example) heads. What are the odds the other coin is tails?
The answer is 2/3.
David DeLaney
because you can pick which coin you show
contrast to “you turn one over without looking and it happens to be heads”; _then_ the odds for the other one are indeed 50-50, as they would also be if Monty picked a door without knowing where the goats were
TerribleTransit
There’s got to be some missing rules to make it 2/3 though, right? Like, if you *preferentially* show heads it’s a 2/3 chance to be tails, but if you just show a coin at random it’s still 50/50.
Prefer heads: could be HH, HT, TH, 2/3 have tails. (TT is excluded, of course)
Show one random coin: could be HH or HT (but not TH or TT) so 1/2 chance it’s tails.
David DeLaney
yes, the missing piece is that Monty KNOWS which doors have goats behind them, so he’s not gonna accidentally open a door and show you the new car and ruin the game
Lurker in the Wires
The missing rule is hidden in the Monty Hall problem. When they reveal one of the doors after the first choice, they will NEVER get rid of a winning door unless more than 1 door can win. The mathematical probability is founded upon your initial choice, not your second choice.
– Blind Choice 1: You chose right. They remove a bad door. The other door is wrong.
– Blind Choice 2: You chose the wrong door. The other door is right.
– Blind Choice 3: You chose the wrong door. The other door is right.
2/3 of the time, you chose wrong at first, so 2/3 of the time, the other remaining door will be correct.
This feels wrong because, in isolation (as most probability is generally considered), each choice has its standard mathematical value (1/3, followed by 50/50). The Monty Hall problem/solution isn’t presented in isolation, but in a series in which one probability sequentially affects the second.
David M Willis
BONE?!?!?!?!
Li
Thank you Lurker in the Halls for FINALLY explaining that in a way that makes sense.
Li
*Wires
Tan
To be clear, this only works if I don’t know which of the two coins you’re showing me. Say you flip a nickel and a quarter. You show me that the nickel has come up heads, there are only two possibilities: the quarter came up heads, or the quarter came up tails. Now if you flip 2 quarters, show me one came up heads and I don’t know which one it is, either both quarters came up heads, quarter 1 came up heads and quarter 2 came up tails, or quarter 2 came up heads and quarter 1 came up tails.
Needfuldoer
Hindsight when they lose.
“I was right! I should’ve stayed!”
“You were right! I should’ve switched!”
Yumi
Aldo, it’s a reference to an episode of Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
Dorothy is falling apart, yearning for something self-destructive but comforting… while her most recent Ex is currently reeling from being dumped, because he wanted a more casual relationship than his new girlfriend.
Sounds like a perfect time for Dotty x Walky hookup that everyone will regret tomorrow…
And, to be fair, Jennifer was going to talk to Walky about other things today. What’s one more task for the quasi-sibling she’s working so hard to not have any human empathy for, who also dated Dorothy and just had his third college romantic interlude crash into the sea-wall of unpleasant realities.
Only if she is trying to get Dorothy together with Jason, whose new file-photo under the cast section is way too sexy for me. It doesn’t help I had a remix of Justin Timberlake’s “Sexy Back” on in the background – I find it funny.
Jacob’s not a let’s smash type and I’m not sure if a slow burn romance solves the problem.
Thag Simmons
Dorothy isn’t really a “Let’s Smash” person either
Sirksome
Analyzing that leads to a deeper discussion and question we may not have answers too. Like we know Dorothy is sexually active and equally frustrated, but is Jacob. There’s a valid argument he’s a virgin. He’s at least spoken his aversion to purely physical relationships and being objectified. I don’t really ship Jake and Dorothy because I think it would be boring but the sex topic might add a compelling obstacle that creates more interest for me.
hatman
That’s true. You wanna go for Booster or Walky when it comes to Smash as they have the Switch.
I honestly can’t remember if Jennifer already knows that Walky and Lucy just broke up.
If she does, though, I’m betting her plan will involve setting up Walky with Dorothy. It could solve so many problems, from her perspective! Make Dorothy stop being sad by giving her some quick sexual satisfaction! Give Walky an easy rebound, so he also stops being sad! Affirm her sibling relationship with Walky once more, so she can stop feeling kinda icky about the fact that she accidentally dated Walky But He’s Taller And Also Smokes for a while! GENIUS!!!
You know, gotta say, for someone who basically got broken up with at a big party and then was yelling at her to basically smash her face in just a few weeks ago, Jennifer is surprisingly pleasant to her ex.
…how? Their last interaction was posted just a few days ago, and Billie was… Mildly rude? A little callous? And before that they were in class together?
I was about to say that Jennifer wouldn’t do that, since she’s already dating Asher, and then I slapped myself for expecting far, far, too much from Jennifer. Actually, she’ll probably RELISH the chance to brag to Asher about how she totally got poetic revenge for him cheating on her with a guy that one time. Oh dear…
…I’m trying to think about where Jennifer could have gotten that idea about Becky. She’s loud and impulsive, but she’s never really been absent-minded.
(taken from a Patreon comment) She remind her of Walky attitude and so she is predisposed to assume she is equally careless about stuff because she doesn’t Becky all that well and Jennifer has a tendency of assume things about people and situations.
Yeah, she doesn’t really know Becky, and especially doesn’t know that friends are something Becky takes very seriously.
Of course, irony being, Walky also takes friends pretty seriously, Jennifer perhaps most of all, but she’s not really in a headspace to look at that objectively.
177 thoughts on “Threatening”
Ana Chronistic
yes, absolutely nothing can possibly go wrong here
clif
Jennifer is like an almost stopped clock that’s close enough to right for about 15 minutes every twelve hours, but you’re never sure which 15 minutes.
milu
this server, meanwhile, [server clock rant]!!!
Imogen
THIS! You summed it up perfectly.
Animedingo
I mean getting laid might help
Yumi
Or make everything worse! Depending!
Let’s find out!
Cmasta1992
It’s amazing how sometimes the answer to “Why is everything pissing me off lately” is just “I haven’t had sex in a while”
No one actually cares about the Monty Hall problem
Yumi
I have had sex recently and care about the Monty Hall problem, but I do recognize that sometimes people just need to bone.
Freemage
Perfect Gravatar-comment alignment, there.
Thag Simmons
I think you would be surprised how angry the Monty Hall problem can make people
DaveM
Honest question, why would the Monty Hall problem upset people? It’s been solved. If you stay with your first door you have a 1 in 3 chance of winning, if you swap doors, you have a 2 in 3 chance. Mythbusters even did some pretty extensive manual testing and proved that it worked IRL as well as mathematically. What’s to get angry about?
David DeLaney
because some people have a deeply innate but wrong sense of how probability OUGHT TO work, dammit deity
–Dave, they don’t realize that math constrains the divine as well
clif
Dave — It’s a miracle how that happens.
foamy
There’s a fun one with two coins that is essentially the same as Monty Hall and that can break people’s brains who have internalized ‘coinflips are independent 50-50 chances’.
Suppose I flip two coins and show you one of them, with it being (for example) heads. What are the odds the other coin is tails?
The answer is 2/3.
David DeLaney
because you can pick which coin you show
contrast to “you turn one over without looking and it happens to be heads”; _then_ the odds for the other one are indeed 50-50, as they would also be if Monty picked a door without knowing where the goats were
TerribleTransit
There’s got to be some missing rules to make it 2/3 though, right? Like, if you *preferentially* show heads it’s a 2/3 chance to be tails, but if you just show a coin at random it’s still 50/50.
Prefer heads: could be HH, HT, TH, 2/3 have tails. (TT is excluded, of course)
Show one random coin: could be HH or HT (but not TH or TT) so 1/2 chance it’s tails.
David DeLaney
yes, the missing piece is that Monty KNOWS which doors have goats behind them, so he’s not gonna accidentally open a door and show you the new car and ruin the game
Lurker in the Wires
The missing rule is hidden in the Monty Hall problem. When they reveal one of the doors after the first choice, they will NEVER get rid of a winning door unless more than 1 door can win. The mathematical probability is founded upon your initial choice, not your second choice.
– Blind Choice 1: You chose right. They remove a bad door. The other door is wrong.
– Blind Choice 2: You chose the wrong door. The other door is right.
– Blind Choice 3: You chose the wrong door. The other door is right.
2/3 of the time, you chose wrong at first, so 2/3 of the time, the other remaining door will be correct.
This feels wrong because, in isolation (as most probability is generally considered), each choice has its standard mathematical value (1/3, followed by 50/50). The Monty Hall problem/solution isn’t presented in isolation, but in a series in which one probability sequentially affects the second.
David M Willis
BONE?!?!?!?!
Li
Thank you Lurker in the Halls for FINALLY explaining that in a way that makes sense.
Li
*Wires
Tan
To be clear, this only works if I don’t know which of the two coins you’re showing me. Say you flip a nickel and a quarter. You show me that the nickel has come up heads, there are only two possibilities: the quarter came up heads, or the quarter came up tails. Now if you flip 2 quarters, show me one came up heads and I don’t know which one it is, either both quarters came up heads, quarter 1 came up heads and quarter 2 came up tails, or quarter 2 came up heads and quarter 1 came up tails.
Needfuldoer
Hindsight when they lose.
“I was right! I should’ve stayed!”
“You were right! I should’ve switched!”
Yumi
Aldo, it’s a reference to an episode of Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
Allandrel
I understood that reference.
Bone.
emeraldbeacon
Dorothy is falling apart, yearning for something self-destructive but comforting… while her most recent Ex is currently reeling from being dumped, because he wanted a more casual relationship than his new girlfriend.
Sounds like a perfect time for Dotty x Walky hookup that everyone will regret tomorrow…
anon
I wonder if jen would try to set walky and dorothy back up together again after she finds out lucy broke up with him
clif
My long shot money is that she tries to set Dorothy up with Daisy. I mean look how well that worked last time.
Rabisch
Let’s hope so. That would be the last straw for Lucy for finally say to Jennifer what terrible person she is and ask for be moved in another room.
Plaaaaaa
Yeah, but is Joyce ready to admit her Sapphic desires as well?
milu
It doesn’t matter! Dorothy just needs to boink someone! anyone! But also, yes please
Firseal
And, to be fair, Jennifer was going to talk to Walky about other things today. What’s one more task for the quasi-sibling she’s working so hard to not have any human empathy for, who also dated Dorothy and just had his third college romantic interlude crash into the sea-wall of unpleasant realities.
NGPZ
Is Jennifer… threatening to basically cuck Ruth? 😮
RassilonTDavros
I mean, they aren’t dating anymore, I wouldn’t really count that.
True Survivor
Only if she is trying to get Dorothy together with Jason, whose new file-photo under the cast section is way too sexy for me. It doesn’t help I had a remix of Justin Timberlake’s “Sexy Back” on in the background – I find it funny.
cbwroses
Huh. I checked and it is surprisingly sexy.
Thag Simmons
I can’t imagine Jason being her first choice to set someone up with, so probably not?
Sirksome
Yeah but the cast list of available to bang Dorothy options is pretty short. Who we lokking at…Ken? Lyle? Get outta here!
Agemegos
Jacob.
Sirksome
Jacob’s not a let’s smash type and I’m not sure if a slow burn romance solves the problem.
Thag Simmons
Dorothy isn’t really a “Let’s Smash” person either
Sirksome
Analyzing that leads to a deeper discussion and question we may not have answers too. Like we know Dorothy is sexually active and equally frustrated, but is Jacob. There’s a valid argument he’s a virgin. He’s at least spoken his aversion to purely physical relationships and being objectified. I don’t really ship Jake and Dorothy because I think it would be boring but the sex topic might add a compelling obstacle that creates more interest for me.
hatman
That’s true. You wanna go for Booster or Walky when it comes to Smash as they have the Switch.
thejeff
Isn’t that back with Charlie?
Or am I thinking of another device?
Nono
If you combine those two, you’re just a Ren away from Kylo Ren.
Thag Simmons
Lyle Ken is missing an “O” and an “R” and the “K” is in the wrong spot
David DeLaney
just add a passing dork, mix well, and bake steamily for 15 minutes
–Dave, … o hai thar Arnold
HueSatLight
[glare]
milu
completely o/t, sorry but
your avatar background is quite pretty
HueSatLight
thank you, it’s from a June Brigman panel. https://womenwriteaboutcomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Untitled.png
Mturtle7
I honestly can’t remember if Jennifer already knows that Walky and Lucy just broke up.
If she does, though, I’m betting her plan will involve setting up Walky with Dorothy. It could solve so many problems, from her perspective! Make Dorothy stop being sad by giving her some quick sexual satisfaction! Give Walky an easy rebound, so he also stops being sad! Affirm her sibling relationship with Walky once more, so she can stop feeling kinda icky about the fact that she accidentally dated Walky But He’s Taller And Also Smokes for a while! GENIUS!!!
Thag Simmons
Always love when Jennifer tries to play matchmaker. It never works, but it’s fun in a Coyote trying to catch the Roadrunner sort of way
True Survivor
Yes, yes it is.
adam Black
She has a 100% After the fact ratio.
If anything her real power isn’t matchmaking, it’s cursing and dooming already paired with her Dumpster aura
Nono
You know, gotta say, for someone who basically got broken up with at a big party and then was yelling at her to basically smash her face in just a few weeks ago, Jennifer is surprisingly pleasant to her ex.
The hatesex must have been REALLY good.
Bryy
This is only because Jennifer wants to tout how amazing she is.
Their last interaction was her assaulting Ruth.
BOOSTER SHOT
…how? Their last interaction was posted just a few days ago, and Billie was… Mildly rude? A little callous? And before that they were in class together?
milu
No, see, it was BILLIE who got broken up with.
JENNIFER only harbours neutral if aloof feelings towards Ruth.
drs
Dorothy/Jennifer!
NGPZ
I ship it! <3
BarerMender
I’m still holding out hopelessly and desolately for Dorothy-Joyce.
anon
just end the series in one big ‘fuckpile’ 8D;
justin8448
I think Dorothy-Joyce is endgame. Or perhaps a V poly (not triad!) situation that also includes Joe will be where we finally end up.
But if I had to guess, I would say that Willis probably has a few decades before retirement, so we’re going to take our time getting there.
David DeLaney
helllpless-ly ho-ping
her harrr-lequin hovers
nearby
awaaaiting a word
Carla's #2 Fan
That’s how I read this interaction!
Mturtle7
I was about to say that Jennifer wouldn’t do that, since she’s already dating Asher, and then I slapped myself for expecting far, far, too much from Jennifer. Actually, she’ll probably RELISH the chance to brag to Asher about how she totally got poetic revenge for him cheating on her with a guy that one time. Oh dear…
Bo
this is a lot more canonizing bi dorothy than i was expecting here we go lads <3
Nono
…I’m trying to think about where Jennifer could have gotten that idea about Becky. She’s loud and impulsive, but she’s never really been absent-minded.
If anything, she’s hyper focused at times.
Jeremiah
(taken from a Patreon comment) She remind her of Walky attitude and so she is predisposed to assume she is equally careless about stuff because she doesn’t Becky all that well and Jennifer has a tendency of assume things about people and situations.
Jeremiah
*doesn’t know Becky all that well
DailyBrad
Yeah, she doesn’t really know Becky, and especially doesn’t know that friends are something Becky takes very seriously.
Of course, irony being, Walky also takes friends pretty seriously, Jennifer perhaps most of all, but she’s not really in a headspace to look at that objectively.
Bryy
The first thing you need to know is that nobody can help anyone except Jennifer.